NFL projections API
Projected scores, spreads, totals and win probabilities for every NFL game, from efficiency ratings, the starting quarterback, injured starters and weather, re-run after the final injury reports.
What goes into every projection
- Opponent-adjusted passing and rushing efficiency (EPA)
- Starting quarterback ratings and QB changes
- Injured starters from the official injury report
- Ratings implied by earlier games' closing lines
- Rest, travel, roof, wind and temperature
- Pace and a gradient-boosted totals correction
Updates: Every week, re-run after the final Friday injury reports.
What the API returns
GET /v1/nfl/projections
{ "game_id", "kickoff", "home", "away",
"proj_home_pts", "proj_away_pts",
"proj_margin", "proj_total",
"margin_sd", "total_sd",
"home_win_prob",
"model_version", "generated_at" }Backtest accuracy
Walk-forward backtest on held-out seasons: settings chosen on earlier seasons, every game projected with only information available before kickoff. The closing line is the betting market's final number, the hardest public benchmark there is.
NFL projections FAQ
When are NFL projections published?+
Weekly, with a re-run on Saturday morning after the final Friday injury reports. Every version is kept with its publish time.
What drives the NFL model?+
Opponent-adjusted passing and rushing efficiency, the starting quarterback, injured starters, ratings implied by earlier games' closing lines, rest, weather, roof and pace.
How accurate are the NFL projections?+
Across ten held-out seasons (2016-2025, 2,761 games) the average margin error was 9.93 points, against 9.78 for the closing betting line; totals 10.50 against 10.44.
Are Thursday, Monday and international games covered?+
Yes, every regular-season and playoff game.